加拿大央行降息決議後,美元兌加幣小幅走高

在加拿大央行決定降低利率之後,加拿大股市和債市週三大幅上漲。這是七國集團(G7)中首次降息,為加拿大經濟注入了樂觀。值得注意的是,在此之後,加幣兌美元匯率跌至近兩週來的低點。

USDCAD - 4-Hour Chart

多倫多證券交易所S&P/TSX綜合指數上漲166.84點(0.8%),至22145.02點,收復了本週稍早的大部分失地。

加拿大央行將基準利率下調25個基點至4.75%,這是四年來首次降息,以減輕高負債消費者的壓力。

密蘇裡州聖路易斯Edward Jones的高級投資策略師Angelo Kourkafas強調了此次降息對股市和債市的正面影響。他強調,加拿大央行願意開始政策正常化,同時維持經濟成長,符合軟著陸的願景。

加拿大服務業經濟在5月實現了一年來的首次成長。標準普爾全球數據顯示,新業務增加,招募速度加快。

隨著大宗商品價格上漲,多倫多市場的所有主要板塊,包括對利率敏感的房地產和資源股板塊,都出現了上漲。

華爾街也出現了反彈,主要是受科技股的推動。

反映市場對加拿大央行進一步降息的預期,加拿大2年期公債殖利率下跌12.7個基點,至3.929%,為2月1日以來的最低水準。

掉期市場數據預計,加拿大央行今年將降息77個基點,而聯準會預計將降息49個基點。

加拿大及美國利率分化的前景令加幣承壓,加幣兌美元匯率下跌0.1%,至1.3690(或73.05美分)。在此之前,加幣觸及1.3741的盤中低點,這是自5月23日以來的最低水準。

分析師預計,在聯準會9月18日的會議之前,加拿大央行可能至少再降息一次,這加大了利差擴大和加幣 匯率 脆弱性的可能性。

聯準會即將召開的政策會議定於6月11日至12日(市場普遍預期利率將維持不變)和7月底,隨後是9月17日至18日的會議。

根據路透社調查,多數預測人士預計聯準會將在9月下調基準利率,並在今年稍晚再次降息。

路透社的一項調查顯示,由於加拿大央行先於聯準會降息,以及11月美國大選對全球貿易不確定性的潛在影響,預計未來一年加幣的升值幅度將比先前預期的要溫和。

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