歐元兌日圓聚焦歐元區GDP尋找下一步走向

在觸及物價阻力後, 歐元兌日圓 匯率將於週四聚焦歐洲GDP數據。

EURJPY – Daily Chart
歐元兌日圓-日線圖

歐元兌日圓在164.93找到阻力位,該水準標誌著2025年的高點。一個看跌的日收盤價正在發揮作用,GDP可能會確認突破或修正。

香港時間週四下午5點將公佈歐元區最新經濟數據,包括就業數據及第一季GDP初步數據。經濟學家預期經濟成長0.4%,全年預期維持在1.2%。

歐洲央行決策者路易斯•德金多斯將於下午6點15分發表講話,這也可能為週五之前的行動增添一些動力。在通貨膨脹率下降後,歐洲央行預計今年降低借貸成本的幅度將超過先前的預期。

立陶宛央行行長Gediminas Simkus上週告訴彭博社,由於歐元區經濟尚未感受到最近關稅的影響及其“明顯的反通膨力量”,6月份的另一次行動是“必要的”。

他還表示,“有可能在6月後再次降息”,儘管時機尚未確定。他補充稱,可能在7月、9月或12月再次降息。芬蘭央行總裁奧利•雷恩也表示,如果歐洲央行的新預測證實了通縮前景,他將支持下個月再次採取行動。

摩根大通的Greg Fuzesi本週表示:「數據中的下行風險可能仍需成為現實,才能說服歐洲央行在6月之後降息。」他指的是執行董事會成員伊莎貝爾·施納貝爾,他說:「我們仍然認為這將會發生,即使施納貝爾還需要很多時間來說服。」

在日本,首相石破茂的經濟顧問小組建議投資4,000億美元,以提高小型企業的生產力,帶動日圓有所升值。

現在,人們的注意力轉向了歐元的第一季GDP數據,如果歐元在最近的關稅之前顯示出疲軟,可能會增加調整。

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